Skittliedat
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 79
Laurel Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Colonial Downs | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Laurel Park | ? | 10th | 7th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/2025 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 27% | -0.31 |
| 23/11/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 29/03/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 18/04/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 07/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/07/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 08/08/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 30/08/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |