9
Too Loose La Trek
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 72
Laurel Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +13.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/02/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 26/02/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 17% | -0.44 |
| 19/03/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 38% | -0.34 |
| 25/04/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 10/05/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 57% | -0.34 |
| 07/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |
| 26/06/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 23/07/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 15/08/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |