3
I'mamaterialgirl
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 66
Laurel Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-31 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-22 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength33%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 08/05/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 06/06/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 22/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 31/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 71% | -0.21 |
| 15/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 22/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 18/09/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |