Legal Lightning

3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 68

Laurel Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

6/4

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength28%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +0.2

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-04-18	Oaklawn Park	?	6th	7th	−1	2.8
2026-03-19	Oaklawn Park	?	5th	6th	−1	3.8
2026-02-14	Oaklawn Park	?	7th	8th	−1	1.8
2025-12-27	Oaklawn Park	?	4th	3rd	+1	7.2
2025-11-21	Churchill Downs	?	3rd	1st	+2	8.8
2025-08-30	Monmouth Park	?	2nd	0th	+2	9.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength47%

Delivery trend -7.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
30/08/2025	2nd	11/4	86%	83%	-0.02
21/11/2025	3rd	9/1	53%	75%	+0.22
27/12/2025	4th	7/2	82%	63%	-0.19
14/02/2026	7th	11/4	86%	33%	-0.52
19/03/2026	5th	9/4	88%	43%	-0.45
18/04/2026	6th	10/1	47%	38%	-0.10