12
Aldene
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 80
Laurel Park · Race 5 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-11-21 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength64%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 28/08/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 03/10/2025 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 25/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 21/11/2025 | 8th | 6/4 | 92% | 13% | -0.80 |
| 03/04/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 23/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 90% | +0.74 |
| 31/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |