9
Big Earn
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 88
Laurel Park · Race 5 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength53%
Delivery trend -5.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 02/11/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 63% | -0.26 |
| 23/11/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 27/12/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 15/02/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 31/05/2026 | 1st | 8/5 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 20/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 27/08/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |