11
Moonblaze
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 87
Laurel Park · Race 5 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-02 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-12 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-02 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 2-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength30%
Delivery trend -10.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 02/08/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 25% | -0.64 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |