7
Sweeterthanwhiskey
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 87
Laurel Park · Race 5 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-04-25 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-11-07 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-10-26 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-10-05 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 9-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength6%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 29/06/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 07/09/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 14/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 05/10/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 26/10/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 07/11/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 70% | -0.12 |
| 25/04/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 31/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |