2
Take Charge Boo
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 82
Laurel Park · Race 5 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 2.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-21 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-09-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength5%
Delivery trend -6.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 86% | +0.59 |
| 01/09/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 21/05/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |
| 31/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 18/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |