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Wise And Elegant

6yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 82

Laurel Park · Race 5 - Allowance · 5f 110y

#4

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength8%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Laurel Park 14/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 81 · 6f Fm 122 · below its mark14/09/2025 · OR 81 par14/09C7OR 81C7 @ Laurel Park 27/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 79 · 5f110y Fm 126 · below its mark27/09/2025 · OR 79 parC7 @ Laurel Park 18/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 84 · 5f110y Fm 123 · below its mark18/10/2025 · OR 84 par18/10C7OR 84C7 @ Laurel Park 08/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 95 · 1m1f Gd 119 · below its mark08/11/2025 · OR 95 parC7 @ Laurel Park 28/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 94 · 1m 119 · below its mark28/11/2025 · OR 94 par28/11C7OR 94C8 @ Laurel Park 25/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 78 · 5f110y Fm 122 · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 78 parC5 @ Colonial Downs 27/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 74 · 5f110y Fm 122 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 74 par27/06C5OR 74C5 @ Colonial Downs 08/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 77 · 5f110y Fm 122 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 77 parC5 @ Colonial Downs 04/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 84 · 5f110y Fm 122 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 84 par4/09C5OR 84projClass-projected finish: 5th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Colonial Downs?4th4th0
2026-08-08Colonial Downs?5th5th0
2026-06-27Colonial Downs?2nd2nd0
2026-04-25Laurel Park?1st4th−3
2025-11-28Laurel Park?8th10th−2
2025-11-08Laurel Park?2nd4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/098/1127/064/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength37%

Delivery trend +4.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/09/20254th9/276%50%-0.26
27/09/20254th11/271%67%-0.04
18/10/20254th5/174%63%-0.11
08/11/20252nd4/179%90%+0.11
28/11/20258th5/174%0%-0.74
25/04/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
27/06/20262nd5/174%83%+0.10
08/08/20265th7/163%60%-0.03
04/09/20264th12/137%63%+0.26