Altobelli

4yo Colt · 9-0 · OR 76

Laurel Park · Race 7 - Ratings Optional Claiming · 5f 110y

#13

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#13

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength33%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.2

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-29	Penn National	?	1st	-1th	+2	5.0
2026-05-20	Presque Isle Downs	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-04-14	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-03-12	Mahoning Valley	?	3rd	4th	−1	5.8
2026-03-04	Mahoning Valley	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2025-11-27	Penn National	?	7th	5th	+2	4.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 7-13 · 68%

▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price

Trend▲

Strength26%

Delivery trend +8.1% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 12th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
16/08/2025	8th	9/1	53%	0%	-0.53
06/09/2025	6th	9/1	53%	0%	-0.53
11/10/2025	8th	33/1	0%	0%	0.00
27/11/2025	7th	25/1	0%	0%	0.00
04/03/2026	5th	12/1	37%	0%	-0.37
12/03/2026	3rd	9/1	53%	33%	-0.19
14/04/2026	6th	25/1	0%	0%	0.00
20/05/2026	5th	25/1	0%	0%	0.00
29/07/2026	1st	13/2	66%	100%	+0.34