Incinerator
5yo Horse · 8-11 · OR 93
Laurel Park · Race 7 - Ratings Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-31 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Laurel Park | ? | 10th | 8th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.9% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 8th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/01/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 18/04/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 01/05/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 16/05/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/05/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 18/07/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 31/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 05/09/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 63% | -0.14 |