Saxton
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 100
Laurel Park · Race 7 - Ratings Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 2.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-06-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-11-28 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-10-26 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 30/07/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 28/09/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 43% | -0.39 |
| 26/10/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 28/11/2025 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 60% | -0.30 |
| 29/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 67% | -0.29 |
| 19/06/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 15/08/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |