Brighty
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 88
Laurel Park · Race 8 - Ratings Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-08-18 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |
| 03/05/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 78% | -0.06 |
| 12/06/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 07/08/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 18/08/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |