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6

Just A Fair Shake

4yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 90

Laurel Park · Race 8 - Ratings Optional Claiming · 1m 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

18%

Place Prob

26%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength31%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Churchill Downs 30/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 98 · 1m 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/10/2025 · OR 98 par30/10C6OR 98C6 @ Churchill Downs 30/11/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 98 · 1m1f 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/11/2025 · OR 98 parC6 @ Turfway Park 07/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 86 · 1m 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/03/2026 · OR 86 par7/03C6OR 86C6 @ Turfway Park 20/03/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 87 · 1m110y 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/03/2026 · OR 87 parC8 @ Churchill Downs 25/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 79 · 1m110y 124 · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 79 par25/05C8OR 79C7 @ Churchill Downs 25/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 93 · 1m110y 118 · below its mark25/06/2026 · OR 93 parC8 @ Colonial Downs 26/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 87 · 1m Fas 122 · below its mark26/07/2026 · OR 87 par26/07C8OR 87C0 @ Colonial Downs 22/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 1m1f Fas 119C6 @ Colonial Downs 06/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 93 · 1m110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/09/2026 · OR 93 par6/09C6OR 93projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06Colonial Downs?6th5th+1
2026-08-22Colonial Downs?4th4th0
2026-07-26Colonial Downs?2nd3rd−1
2026-06-25Churchill Downs?4th4th0
2026-05-25Churchill Downs?1st2nd−1
2026-03-20Turfway Park?12th11th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/1020/0326/076/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength71%

Delivery trend -0.4% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/10/20255th9/276%33%-0.43
30/11/202512th20/10%0%0.00
07/03/20264th7/163%63%-0.01
20/03/202612th20/10%0%0.00
25/05/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
25/06/20264th14/126%63%+0.36
26/07/20262nd2/189%83%-0.06
22/08/20264th10/147%57%+0.10
06/09/20266th4/179%17%-0.62