Otago
6yo Horse · 8-11 · OR 96
Laurel Park · Race 8 - Ratings Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Colonial Downs | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-02-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-01-17 | Fair Grounds | ? | 11th | 9th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 11/10/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 21/12/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 17/01/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/02/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 07/05/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 22/05/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 05/07/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 14/08/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |