Pay Billy
4yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 103
Laurel Park · Race 8 - Ratings Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
80%
Place Prob
56%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 3.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-02-27 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-02-05 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-12-20 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-11-29 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 19/04/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 17/05/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 29/11/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 38% | -0.36 |
| 20/12/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 05/02/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 27/02/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 04/04/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 01/05/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |