Union Fleet
7yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 96
Laurel Park · Race 8 - Ratings Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-08-22 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/02/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 22/03/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 40% | -0.47 |
| 11/04/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 25/06/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 26/07/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 22/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/09/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |