IvyArcIvyArc
5

No Law

2yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 71

Laurel Park · Race 9 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

#8

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼2
Strength75%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 8.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +2.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Saratoga 16/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 1m110y Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS16/08C6C7 @ Saratoga 02/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 77 · 1m110y Yie 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/09/2026 · OR 77 par2/09C7OR 77projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Saratoga?8th6th+2
2026-08-16Saratoga?9th6th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/082/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1564% of fieldRange 5-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength70%

Delivery trend +18.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/08/20269th40/10%11%+0.11
02/09/20268th33/10%30%+0.30