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11

Ozark Daze

5yo Gelding · 11-12

Listowel · John J. Galvin Maiden Hurdle · 2m 2f 125y

#6

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair middle-distance handicapper on all-weather for Jack W. Davison last autumn/winter. Tongue strap refitted for hurdling/stable debut and may just need this following 9 months away.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength57%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 8 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: +1.1
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA76 @ Ballinrobe 23/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 76 · 1m1f163y Gd 136 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/06/2025 · OR 76 par23/0676OR 76BHA75 @ Down Royal 18/07/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 75 · 1m2f140y Goo 137 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/07/2025 · OR 75 parC7 @ Roscommon 19/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 73 · 1m2f95y Gd 142 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/08/2025 · OR 73 par19/08C7OR 73BHA69 @ Dundalk 19/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 69 · 1m4f Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/09/2025 · OR 69 parBHA70 @ Curragh 28/09/2025 · Pos 17th of 22 · OR 70 · 1m2f Yie 170 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/09/2025 · OR 70 par28/0970OR 70C7 @ Dundalk 17/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 69 · 1m2f150y Std 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/10/2025 · OR 69 parBHA69 @ Dundalk 19/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 69 · 1m Std 139 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/11/2025 · OR 69 par19/1169OR 69BHA69 @ Dundalk 21/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 69 · 1m2f150y Std 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/11/2025 · OR 69 parBHA70 @ Dundalk 17/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 70 · 1m2f150y Std 140 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/12/2025 · OR 70 par17/1270OR 70projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-12-17DundalkBHA704th3rd+1
2025-11-21DundalkBHA692nd1st+1
2025-11-19DundalkBHA696th5th+1
2025-10-17Dundalk?4th2nd+2
2025-09-28CurraghBHA7017th16th+1
2025-09-19DundalkBHA692nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0619/0919/1117/12
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1859% of fieldRange 13-18 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength5%

Delivery trend -0.4% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 8th of 18.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/06/20255th10/147%67%+0.19
18/07/20259th10/147%11%-0.36
19/08/20253rd9/153%78%+0.25
19/09/20252nd11/271%91%+0.20
28/09/202517th22/10%24%+0.24
17/10/20254th9/276%77%+0.01
19/11/20256th8/158%62%+0.04
21/11/20252nd10/382%92%+0.10
17/12/20254th10/382%77%-0.06