18

Woodie Wiley

5yo Gelding · 11-12

Listowel · John J. Galvin Maiden Hurdle · 2m 2f 125y

#18

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#18

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Did little better than first time up over hurdles at Navan 6 days ago. Another one for handicaps. RESERVE

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 9.0 /10 (raw 9.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Bellewstown 04/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR - · 2m1f40y Gd 1614/07C?C8 @ Cork 03/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 18 · OR - · 2m2f Goo 1663/08C8C8 @ Navan 19/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR - · 2m5f Gd 16619/09C8projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Navan?10th10th0
2026-08-03Cork?10th10th0
2026-07-04Bellewstown?7th7th0
2026-06-06Punchestown?0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/073/0819/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 1812% of fieldRange 14-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength23%

Delivery trend -12.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 16th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/07/20267th40/10%60%+0.60
03/08/202610th40/10%47%+0.47
19/09/202610th66/10%36%+0.36