10
Costanuci
9yo Mare · 11-3 · OR 99
Listowel · MCG Ladies Handicap Hurdle · 2m 2f 125y
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C10.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Navan | BHA100 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Wexford | BHA100 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Cork | BHA102 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Punchestown | BHA103 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-25 | Tramore | BHA110 | 0 | ||
| 2025-10-07 | Galway | BHA113 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1882% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength77%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08/2024 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 01/07/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 23/07/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 01/10/2025 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 07/10/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 07/06/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 10/07/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 73% | +0.31 |
| 23/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 92% | +0.24 |
| 19/09/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |