8
Earl Neigh
7yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 100
Listowel · MCG Ladies Handicap Hurdle · 2m 2f 125y
#18
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#18
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Downpatrick | BHA102 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Cork | BHA104 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Listowel | BHA107 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Sligo | BHA108 | 0 | ||
| 2025-11-23 | Cork | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-09 | Naas | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 1818% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength77%
Delivery trend +3.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 15th of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/2023 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 20/03/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 09/11/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 87% | +0.39 |
| 23/11/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 30/05/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 03/08/2026 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 47% | +0.42 |
| 18/09/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |