17
Hidalgo Des Mottes
9yo Gelding · 10-6 · OR 88
Listowel · MCG Ladies Handicap Hurdle · 2m 2f 125y
#14
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Wexford | BHA89 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Punchestown | BHA88 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Clonmel | BHA88 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Killarney | BHA67 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Kilbeggan | BHA89 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-19 | Dundalk | BHA70 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 186% of fieldRange 14-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 17th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/2025 | 9th | 200/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 02/11/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 79% | +0.15 |
| 27/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 92% | +0.29 |
| 19/12/2025 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 24/04/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 12/05/2026 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 05/06/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 53% | -0.18 |
| 07/06/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 93% | +0.38 |
| 03/07/2026 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 38% | -0.27 |