14
Lakewood Rose
8yo Mare · 11-0 · OR 96
Listowel · MCG Ladies Handicap Hurdle · 2m 2f 125y
#16
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Kilbeggan | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Cork | BHA99 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Punchestown | BHA99 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Wexford | BHA98 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Tramore | BHA99 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Cork | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 1812% of fieldRange 4-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength54%
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 16th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/05/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 19/02/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 08/03/2026 | 6th | 150/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 19/03/2026 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 20/04/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 77% | +0.72 |
| 07/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 87% | +0.18 |
| 10/07/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 21/08/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |