4
Lord Ffrench
6yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 104
Listowel · MCG Ladies Handicap Hurdle · 2m 2f 125y
#12
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C10.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Killarney | BHA106 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Galway | BHA107 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Punchestown | BHA109 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Killarney | BHA110 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-16 | Thurles | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-12 | Ballinrobe | BHA113 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1853% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength92%
Delivery trend +3.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 59% | +0.59 |
| 07/08/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 14/08/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 12/09/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 16/10/2025 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 17% | +0.11 |
| 11/05/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 07/06/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 29/07/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 20/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |