5
One And Only
8yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 104
Listowel · MCG Ladies Handicap Hurdle · 2m 2f 125y
#11
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Listowel | BHA105 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Cork | BHA105 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Limerick | BHA99 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-15 | Fairyhouse | BHA89 | 0 | ||
| 2025-12-29 | Limerick | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-20 | Thurles | BHA88 | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1835% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength68%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/12/2024 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 13/12/2024 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 94% | +0.09 |
| 24/02/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 92% | +0.16 |
| 10/04/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 94% | +0.31 |
| 08/06/2025 | 16th | 8/1 | 58% | 6% | -0.52 |
| 29/12/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 82% | +0.45 |
| 12/03/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 05/04/2026 | 8th | 17/2 | 55% | 53% | -0.02 |
| 30/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |