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5yo Gelding · 11-3 · OR 99

Listowel · MCG Ladies Handicap Hurdle · 2m 2f 125y

#10

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Shaping up quite well with a view to handicaps, creditable third of 11 in novice hurdle at Kilbeggan (19f, good) 22 days ago. Makes handicap hurdle debut and he rates a likely improver.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Leopardstown 29/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR - · 2m Goo 16129/12C?C8 @ Kilbeggan 24/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR - · 2m2f200y Gd 15824/07C8C8 @ Wexford 07/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR - · 2m180y Goo 1587/08C8C8 @ Kilbeggan 03/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 2m3f Goo 1663/09C8projClass-projected finish: 5th of 18
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Kilbeggan?3rd3rd0
2026-08-07Wexford?5th5th0
2026-07-24Kilbeggan?8th8th0
2025-12-29Leopardstown?9th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/1224/077/083/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1888% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +11.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 18. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/12/20259th125/10%0%0.00
24/07/20268th50/10%50%+0.50
07/08/20265th125/10%69%+0.69
03/09/20263rd10/147%80%+0.33