1
War Correspondent
7yo Gelding · 12-2 · OR 112
Listowel · MCG Ladies Handicap Hurdle · 2m 2f 125y
#2
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#2
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Newton Abbot | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Downpatrick | BHA121 | 0 | ||
| 2026-08-02 | Galway | BHA123 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Uttoxeter | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Stratford | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Punchestown | BHA123 | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1876% of fieldRange 5-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength41%
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/2025 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 15/10/2025 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 24/10/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 07/05/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 27/05/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 63% | -0.09 |
| 12/07/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 26/07/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 02/08/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 07/09/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |