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15

Who's Da Goose

4yo Gelding · 10-13 · OR 97

Listowel · MCG Ladies Handicap Hurdle · 2m 2f 125y

#5

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#5

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Left qualifying runs well behind when making a successful handicap debut at Wexford (2½m) last month. Up 9 lb but he's unexposed and represents last year's winning jockey/trainer combination.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Killarney 09/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR - · 2m1f Goo 1539/05C8C8 @ Roscommon 08/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 2m Yie 1618/06C8C8 @ Cork 10/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 2m1f60y Goo 16110/07C8BHA88 @ Wexford 07/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 88 · 2m4f55y Goo 152 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 88 par7/0888OR 88projClass-projected finish: 1st of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-07WexfordBHA881st1st0
2026-07-10Cork?8th8th0
2026-06-08Roscommon?5th5th0
2026-05-09Killarney?7th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/058/0610/077/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 18100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +13.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 18. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/05/20267th100/10%54%+0.54
08/06/20265th18/15%60%+0.55
10/07/20268th40/10%46%+0.46
07/08/20261st25/10%100%+1.00