Cerberus
10yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 88
Listowel · Trant Goodwill Stakes Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m
#12
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 11.7 /10 (raw 5.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Tramore | BHA98 | 6th | 12th | −5 |
| 2026-03-19 | Cork | BHA90 | 4th | 9th | −5 |
| 2024-07-12 | Kilbeggan | BHA102 | 12th | 19th | −6 |
| 2024-07-07 | Limerick | BHA66 | 10th | 13th | −2 |
| 2024-06-12 | Limerick | BHA68 | 7th | 10th | −2 |
| 2024-04-18 | Clonmel | ? | 4th | 8th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2024 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 21/01/2024 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 21/03/2024 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 18/04/2024 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 12/06/2024 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 07/07/2024 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 18% | -0.08 |
| 12/07/2024 | 12th | 17/2 | 55% | 15% | -0.40 |
| 19/03/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 19/04/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 44% | -0.03 |