4
Glengarriff
5yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 96
Listowel · Trant Goodwill Stakes Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m
#15
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 16.5 /10 (raw 11.2)
Highest class: BHA64
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -3.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Kilbeggan | ? | 3rd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Roscommon | ? | 12th | 16th | −4 |
| 2026-06-06 | Punchestown | ? | 18th | 22th | −4 |
| 2025-11-27 | Thurles | ? | 13th | 17th | −4 |
| 2025-05-16 | Leopardstown | BHA64 | 19th | 21th | −2 |
| 2025-04-25 | Limerick | ? | 11th | 15th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1744% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength82%
Delivery trend +7.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/2023 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 07/06/2023 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 23/06/2023 | 12th | 18/1 | 5% | 15% | +0.10 |
| 25/04/2025 | 11th | 125/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 16/05/2025 | 19th | 150/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/11/2025 | 13th | 250/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 06/06/2026 | 18th | 200/1 | 0% | 26% | +0.26 |
| 06/07/2026 | 12th | 300/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 04/09/2026 | 3rd | 300/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |