10
Kelly's Cosmos
5yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 90
Listowel · Trant Goodwill Stakes Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m
#11
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲5
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 13.0 /10 (raw 7.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.3
Today:
Class gap: -4.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Cork | BHA92 | 12th | 18th | −5 |
| 2026-05-26 | Ballinrobe | BHA95 | 11th | 17th | −5 |
| 2026-05-10 | Cork | BHA97 | 6th | 12th | −5 |
| 2026-02-03 | Fairyhouse | BHA98 | 8th | 14th | −5 |
| 2025-12-27 | Limerick | ? | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
| 2025-10-26 | Galway | BHA98 | 4th | 10th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1725% of fieldRange 8-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength16%
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/2025 | 6th | 100/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 10/05/2025 | 7th | 125/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 25/09/2025 | 12th | 22/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 26/10/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 63% | -0.09 |
| 27/12/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 03/02/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 36% | -0.29 |
| 10/05/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 64% | +0.59 |
| 26/05/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 10/07/2026 | 12th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |