8
Loi Des Jeux
5yo Gelding · 11-5 · OR 91
Listowel · Trant Goodwill Stakes Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲4
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 11.1 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: -3.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | Clonmel | BHA84 | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-04-16 | Limerick | BHA85 | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Punchestown | ? | 10th | 14th | −3 |
| 2025-12-07 | Cork | ? | 8th | 12th | −4 |
| 2025-11-08 | Gowran Park | ? | 13th | 17th | −4 |
| 2025-10-26 | Galway | ? | 6th | 10th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1781% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength85%
Delivery trend -5.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/2025 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 08/11/2025 | 13th | 150/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 07/12/2025 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 61% | +0.61 |
| 12/01/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 16/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 14/05/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |