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16

Marian Avenue

6yo Gelding · 11-13 · OR 99

Listowel · Trant Goodwill Stakes Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m

#10

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Left previous efforts behind when going down narrowly to odds-on winner at Punchestown in May before finishing first past the post at Limerick 15 days later, subsequently disqualified for causing interference. No threat back from a 10-week break at Wexford early last month, though. RESERVE.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲4
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 11.4 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.9
Today:
Class gap: -4.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Tramore 01/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR - · 2m180y Sft 1581/01C8C8 @ Clonmel 26/02/2026 · Pos 11th of 16 · OR - · 2m3f64y Hvy 15826/02C8C8 @ Wexford 17/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 2m Sft 16617/03C8BHA90 @ Clonmel 14/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR 90 · 2m216y Yie 158 · below its mark14/04/2026 · OR 90 par14/0490OR 90BHA89 @ Punchestown 13/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 18 · OR 89 · 2m Goo 158 · below its mark13/05/2026 · OR 89 par13/0589OR 89BHA94 @ Limerick 28/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 94 · 2m3f200y Sft 163 · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 94 par28/0594OR 94BHA99 @ Wexford 08/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 99 · 2m4f50y Goo 160 · below its mark08/08/2026 · OR 99 par8/0899OR 99projClass-projected finish: 8th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-08WexfordBHA995th12th−5
2026-05-28LimerickBHA941st7th−5
2026-05-13PunchestownBHA892nd7th−4
2026-04-14ClonmelBHA9010th15th−5
2026-03-17Wexford?8th12th−4
2026-02-26Clonmel?11th15th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0114/048/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1719% of fieldRange 14-18 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -14.3% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 14th of 17. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/01/20266th125/10%58%+0.58
26/02/202611th150/10%33%+0.33
17/03/20268th100/10%46%+0.46
14/04/202610th16/116%40%+0.24
13/05/20262nd9/276%94%+0.18
28/05/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
08/08/20265th6/168%20%-0.48