Pahlavi
9yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 92
Listowel · Trant Goodwill Stakes Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m
#9
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.1 /10 (raw 5.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Downpatrick | BHA92 | 3rd | 9th | −5 |
| 2026-08-31 | Downpatrick | BHA94 | 6th | 12th | −5 |
| 2026-08-16 | Tramore | BHA95 | 5th | 11th | −5 |
| 2026-07-12 | Sligo | BHA97 | −5 | ||
| 2026-06-29 | Stratford | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-02 | Southwell | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 53% | +0.16 |
| 18/10/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 07/05/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 21/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 02/06/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/06/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 16/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 31/08/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 18/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 82% | +0.11 |