17
Sidiriya
7yo Mare · 10-3 · OR 75
Listowel · Trant Goodwill Stakes Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m
#8
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength19%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.6 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -3.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Ballinrobe | BHA76 | −3 | ||
| 2026-07-23 | Wexford | BHA77 | 5th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-06-05 | Clonmel | BHA76 | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-05-12 | Sligo | BHA76 | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-04-24 | Kilbeggan | BHA77 | 6th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-03-19 | Cork | BHA78 | 13th | 17th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1738% of fieldRange 9-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength14%
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/12/2025 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 08/01/2026 | 11th | 9/2 | 76% | 23% | -0.53 |
| 22/01/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 04/03/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.06 |
| 19/03/2026 | 13th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 24/04/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 64% | +0.17 |
| 12/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 05/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 93% | +0.24 |
| 23/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 64% | -0.15 |