Surviving Murmansk
8yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 72
Listowel · Trant Goodwill Stakes Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m
#13
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.9 /10 (raw 8.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Bellewstown | BHA72 | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-08-16 | Tramore | BHA73 | 10th | 13th | −3 |
| 2026-08-08 | Kilbeggan | BHA73 | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-08-03 | Cork | BHA73 | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-24 | Kilbeggan | BHA76 | 11th | 15th | −3 |
| 2026-07-07 | Tramore | BHA50 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 29% | -0.42 |
| 21/11/2025 | 13th | 125/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 30/05/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 07/07/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 24/07/2026 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 03/08/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |
| 08/08/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 58% | -0.07 |
| 16/08/2026 | 10th | 5/1 | 74% | 31% | -0.43 |
| 26/08/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 86% | +0.80 |