14
Turlough Abu
4yo Filly · 10-6 · OR 80
Listowel · Trant Goodwill Stakes Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m
#16
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲4
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 12.7 /10 (raw 9.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -3.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Sligo | ? | 5th | 9th | −4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Ballinrobe | ? | 7th | 11th | −4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Ballinrobe | ? | 8th | 12th | −4 |
| 2025-10-20 | Gowran Park | ? | 8th | 12th | −4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Ballinrobe | ? | 9th | 13th | −4 |
| 2025-09-01 | Roscommon | ? | 14th | 18th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 1713% of fieldRange 8-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength41%
Delivery trend +4.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 15th of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/2025 | 15th | 150/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 14/08/2025 | 10th | 400/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 01/09/2025 | 14th | 250/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 12/09/2025 | 9th | 250/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 20/10/2025 | 8th | 200/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/05/2026 | 8th | 400/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 21/07/2026 | 7th | 300/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 06/08/2026 | 5th | 80/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |