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Autumn Twist

5yo Gelding · 11-3 · OR 133

Listowel · Ballymore Handicap Hurdle (Listed) · 2m

#15

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#15

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Took form up a notch when second in handicap hurdle at Bellewstown in July and built on that when winning Killarney handicap last month. This is tougher but he remains feasibly treated.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲8
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 16.1 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.9
Today: 1
Class gap: -7.9
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Listowel 25/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 17 · OR 124 · 2m Goo 150 · beat its mark25/09/2025 · OR 124 par25/091OR 124BHA77 @ Dundalk 13/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 77 · 1m4f Std 137 · below its mark13/03/2026 · OR 77 par1 @ Punchestown 28/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 21 · OR 123 · 2m132y Yie 140 · beat its mark28/04/2026 · OR 123 par28/041OR 123BHA75 @ Leopardstown 15/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 75 · 1m4f Gd 135 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 75 parBHA73 @ Limerick 10/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 73 · 2m1f Yie 143 · below its mark10/06/2026 · OR 73 par10/0673OR 73BHA122 @ Bellewstown 04/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 122 · 2m1f40y Gd 161 · below its mark04/07/2026 · OR 122 parBHA70 @ Galway 30/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 17 · OR 70 · 1m4f Yie 140 · below its mark30/07/2026 · OR 70 par30/0770OR 70BHA126 @ Killarney 20/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 126 · 2m1f Goo 161 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 126 parBHA68 @ Cork 09/09/2026 · Pos 15th of 18 · OR 68 · 1m Goo 139 · below its mark09/09/2026 · OR 68 par9/0968OR 68projClass-projected finish: 14th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09CorkBHA6815th22th−6
2026-08-20KillarneyBHA1261st15th−12
2026-07-30GalwayBHA707th14th−6
2026-07-04BellewstownBHA1222nd15th−11
2026-06-10LimerickBHA739th17th−6
2026-05-15LeopardstownBHA756th14th−7

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0915/0530/079/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1719% of fieldRange 7-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength38%

Delivery trend -10.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 17. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/09/20255th28/10%75%+0.75
13/03/20265th20/10%50%+0.50
28/04/20266th125/10%75%+0.75
15/05/20266th11/142%44%+0.02
10/06/20269th25/10%38%+0.38
04/07/20262nd17/255%93%+0.38
30/07/20267th11/271%63%-0.09
20/08/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
09/09/202615th12/137%18%-0.19