12
Fiver Friday
6yo Mare · 10-10 · OR 126
Listowel · Ballymore Handicap Hurdle (Listed) · 2m
#10
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲9
Strength21%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 16.3 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C10.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -9.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Bellewstown | BHA126 | 15th | 29th | −12 |
| 2026-06-20 | Down Royal | BHA92 | 8th | 18th | −8 |
| 2026-05-23 | Curragh | BHA90 | 4th | 14th | −8 |
| 2026-04-18 | Bellewstown | BHA115 | 1st | 14th | −11 |
| 2026-04-03 | Curragh | BHA78 | 1st | 9th | −7 |
| 2026-01-18 | Thurles | BHA114 | 2nd | 15th | −10 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1725% of fieldRange 16-17 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -8.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/2025 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 16/10/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 20/12/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 90% | +0.06 |
| 18/01/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 92% | +0.29 |
| 03/04/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 18/04/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 84% | +0.11 |
| 20/06/2026 | 8th | 5/2 | 87% | 13% | -0.74 |
| 04/07/2026 | 15th | 6/1 | 68% | 7% | -0.62 |