4
Gameball
6yo Gelding · 11-5 · OR 135
Listowel · Ballymore Handicap Hurdle (Listed) · 2m
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲5
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.1
Today: 1
Class gap: -5.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Galway | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Kilbeggan | BHA132 | 2nd | 17th | −12 |
| 2026-04-30 | Punchestown | ? | 3rd | 11th | −7 |
| 2025-11-30 | Fairyhouse | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-15 | Punchestown | ? | 1st | 9th | −7 |
| 2025-07-22 | Ballinrobe | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 17100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +8.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 15/10/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 30/11/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 30/04/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 10/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 92% | +0.13 |
| 30/07/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 89% | +0.63 |