Helvic Dream
9yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 136
Listowel · Ballymore Handicap Hurdle (Listed) · 2m
#17
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#17
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 16.6 /10 (raw 5.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Leopardstown | BHA91 | 15th | 25th | −8 |
| 2026-07-30 | Galway | 1 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Cork | BHA96 | 9th | 19th | −9 |
| 2026-04-04 | Fairyhouse | 1 | 17th | 17th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Cheltenham | 1 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-10-12 | Naas | BHA99 | 11th | 22th | −9 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 15th of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 13/09/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 28/09/2025 | 14th | 33/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 12/10/2025 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 13/03/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 04/04/2026 | 17th | 14/1 | 26% | 6% | -0.20 |
| 03/05/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 30/07/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 74% | +0.37 |
| 12/09/2026 | 15th | 50/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |