1
Laafi
6yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 142
Listowel · Ballymore Handicap Hurdle (Listed) · 2m
#12
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength21%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.4 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Galway | 1 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Haydock | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Aintree | 2 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-28 | Kelso | 2 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-12-27 | Leopardstown | BHA135 | 5th | 20th | −13 |
| 2025-11-16 | Cheltenham | 1 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1756% of fieldRange 1-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength68%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/2024 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 26/12/2024 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 26/01/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 16/11/2025 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 35% | +0.35 |
| 27/12/2025 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 75% | +0.70 |
| 28/02/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 10/04/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 09/05/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 93% | +0.67 |
| 30/07/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 63% | +0.21 |