14
Malbay Madness
6yo Gelding · 10-5 · OR 121
Listowel · Ballymore Handicap Hurdle (Listed) · 2m
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲10
Strength17%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 15.9 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C11.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -10.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Downpatrick | BHA121 | 1st | 14th | −11 |
| 2026-07-04 | Bellewstown | BHA121 | 8th | 21th | −11 |
| 2026-06-14 | Downpatrick | BHA114 | 1st | 14th | −10 |
| 2026-05-15 | Kilbeggan | BHA108 | 1st | 13th | −10 |
| 2026-04-24 | Kilbeggan | BHA108 | 3rd | 15th | −10 |
| 2025-10-27 | Wexford | BHA110 | 7th | 19th | −10 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1763% of fieldRange 2-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength59%
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 16/05/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 11/10/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 45% | -0.07 |
| 27/10/2025 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 54% | +0.12 |
| 24/04/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |
| 15/05/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 14/06/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 04/07/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 53% | -0.05 |
| 09/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |