10
Path D'oroux
9yo Gelding · 10-13 · OR 129
Listowel · Ballymore Handicap Hurdle (Listed) · 2m
#11
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲9
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 18.1 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -8.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Gowran Park | ? | 4th | 12th | −7 |
| 2026-08-01 | Galway | BHA130 | 11th | 25th | −12 |
| 2026-07-14 | Killarney | ? | 3rd | 11th | −7 |
| 2026-04-30 | Punchestown | 1 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Cork | BHA134 | 5th | 20th | −12 |
| 2026-03-07 | Gowran Park | BHA138 | 9th | 24th | −13 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1750% of fieldRange 3-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength52%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/2025 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 14/01/2026 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 18% | +0.13 |
| 22/02/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 07/03/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 06/04/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 30/04/2026 | 15th | 80/1 | 0% | 26% | +0.26 |
| 14/07/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 82% | +0.56 |
| 01/08/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 01/09/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |