3
Paul's Dream
7yo Mare · 11-6 · OR 136
Listowel · Ballymore Handicap Hurdle (Listed) · 2m
#6
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲10
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 14.6 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C11.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -10.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Galway | BHA129 | 1st | 15th | −12 |
| 2026-08-13 | Tramore | ? | 3rd | 11th | −7 |
| 2026-08-01 | Galway | BHA126 | 3rd | 17th | −12 |
| 2026-07-10 | Kilbeggan | BHA116 | 1st | 14th | −11 |
| 2026-05-26 | Ballinrobe | BHA110 | 1st | 13th | −10 |
| 2026-05-09 | Killarney | BHA110 | 5th | 17th | −10 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1769% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength68%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 94% | +0.17 |
| 11/10/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 17/11/2025 | 13th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 09/05/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 56% | -0.02 |
| 26/05/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 01/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |
| 13/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |