9
Run For Mahler
7yo Mare · 11-2 · OR 132
Listowel · Ballymore Handicap Hurdle (Listed) · 2m
#13
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲9
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 16.0 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -8.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Gowran Park | ? | 8th | 16th | −7 |
| 2026-08-13 | Tramore | ? | 7th | 15th | −7 |
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | ? | 6th | 14th | −7 |
| 2026-07-29 | Galway | ? | 7th | 15th | −7 |
| 2026-07-16 | Killarney | BHA124 | 1st | 15th | −11 |
| 2026-05-30 | Listowel | BHA125 | 6th | 20th | −12 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1738% of fieldRange 1-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength47%
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 94% | +0.34 |
| 16/10/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 24/10/2025 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 27% | -0.41 |
| 30/05/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |
| 16/07/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 29/07/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 65% | +0.65 |
| 31/07/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 13/08/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 25% | -0.36 |
| 01/09/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 42% | +0.15 |