6
Starting Fifteen
5yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 134
Listowel · Ballymore Handicap Hurdle (Listed) · 2m
#16
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Galway | 1 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Aintree | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Leopardstown | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Limerick | ? | 1st | 9th | −7 |
| 2025-10-18 | Limerick | ? | 2nd | 10th | −7 |
| 2025-09-27 | Listowel | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 170% of fieldRange 7-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength35%
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 17th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/03/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 29/04/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 91% | +0.20 |
| 27/09/2025 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 63% | -0.30 |
| 18/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 93% | +0.14 |
| 26/12/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 01/02/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 10/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 30/07/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 53% | +0.16 |