11
Thisistheway
7yo Mare · 10-13 · OR 129
Listowel · Ballymore Handicap Hurdle (Listed) · 2m
#5
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲4
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 11.0 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -4.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Galway | ? | 7th | 15th | −7 |
| 2026-07-30 | Galway | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Bellewstown | BHA121 | 4th | 17th | −11 |
| 2026-05-02 | Punchestown | 1 | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-28 | Curragh | ? | 10th | 18th | −7 |
| 2025-12-29 | Leopardstown | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1781% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength94%
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/02/2025 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 78% | +0.73 |
| 30/04/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 26/09/2025 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 60% | +0.18 |
| 18/10/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 29/12/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 93% | +0.41 |
| 28/03/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 04/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 95% | +0.95 |
| 08/09/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |